2013 MLB Predictions

So, first up, how did I get on last year...

AL East: 1/5 (in the correct finishing position)
AL Central: 1/5
AL West: 2/4

NL East: 0/5
NL Central: 2/6
NL West: 0/5

Total right: 6/30 or 20%

I think we've established that if you're looking for expert opinion, you've come to the wrong place.

Still, something to aim at. And by 'something', I mean: 'try and get one right in each league at least hey, lest you end up looking like a total moron'.

The aim last year was to compare to Olbermann (I matched his previous year's total of 6, albeit he missed off predicting two leagues, so got 30%) but he's a bit of a spotty blogger and doesn't seem to have done his this year yet so instead I'll turn to Yahoo's Jeff Passan and Tim Brown, who jointly came up with a set of detailed pre-Spring rankings which can be read through here but which, simplified, equate to the following standings (team to finish in 1st listed 1st).

AL East: Blue Jays, Rays, Yankees, Orioles, Red Sox
AL Central: Tigers, Royals, White Sox, Indians, Twins
AL West: Angels, Rangers, Athletics, Mariners, Astros

NL East: Nationals, Braves, Phillies, Mets, Marlins
NL Central: Reds, Cardinals, Brewers, Cubs, Pirates
NL West: Dodgers, Giants, Diamondbacks, Padres, Rockies

Without further ado...


AL East: Rays, Blue Jays, Yankees, Red Sox, Orioles

If The Angels', The Dodgers' and, erm, The Marlins' projects taught MLB anything last year, it should have been that you can't build a title-winning team in a year. Luckily for the Blue Jays they've been building up to it for a while (I picked them for 2nd and playoffs last year) but the Rays have been doing it for even longer. On paper, sure, the Rays should be nowhere near this division but on paper the Rays probably shouldn't even exist, yet they keep competing, year-on-year, in baseball's toughest division. The Jays will make it this year though, through the wildcard, from whence they could go all the way. Yahoo's prediction that the Red Sox remain rooted seems far-fetched given the core of Ellsbury, Victorino, Pedroia and Big Papi mediate a not-very-good rotation. The Yankees, trying desperately for the budget cap and distracted by A-Rod even when he isn't with the team, should still have enough to be relatively competitive.

AL Central: Tigers, Royals, Indians, White Sox, Twins

In an awful division, James Shields might be all the Royals need to make it out of a crowded mid-table of average franchises, heading in wildly out-of-kilter directions. The Twins look awful, the White Sox surely can't repeat last year and the Indians have made some noticeable improvements over last year but still won't be great enough. The Tigers should walk this for years to come but, hopefully, the Royals/Indians will do enough this year to keep it at least semi-interesting.

AL West: Angels, Athletics, Rangers, Mariners, Astros

No team is too big to fail but the Angels are getting there, and the tantalising prospect of an Angels/Dodgers World Series looms at some point... on paper. They're helped by the Rangers new weaknesses; no Napoli, no Hamilton (now with the Angels), two of last year's stars. Oakland won't repeat based on the fact that many of their wins last year were down to the luck of the walk-off but they do look better than the Rangers and Beane believes they can take it all, so look out for trades late on if they remain competitive. The Mariners are improved and may even run the Rangers tight if they can convince a couple more to join. The Astros are still the worst team in baseball but hey, they do have a nice new logo.

NL East: Nationals, Braves, Phillies, Mets, Marlins

If it wasn't for the Marlins player-dumping then this could have been the most interesting division in baseball. As it is, both they and the Mets will just be looking to avoid bottom spot. The demise of The Phillies has been greatly exaggerated. A .500 team, if you describe them as having a top rotation but a middling batting order then you're also describing the Nationals. The former have made a good long-term pick-up (Revere) and a good short-term pick-up (Young). The latter re-signed LaRoche, who's 33 and not getting any better than he was last year. Still, the status quo is changing, the Nationals do seem to have the best pitching and the Braves have the feel good factor of B.J. and Justin. The top three are changeable but I'm with Yahoo: Washington has the edge in what, at the start of the season, looks an interesting fight.

NL Central: Reds, Cardinals, Pirates, Cubs, Brewers

For the second straight off-season, Ryan Braun has been linked to PEDs. Make of that what you will but with him or without him, the Brewers are in decline, whilst the Cubs and Pirates are building from rock bottom in the former's case and not-too-far away from that in the latter's. Last year's lessons learned by me: underestimate the Cardinals at your peril. The Reds should still be too strong for them though, boasting a rotation where a still-decent Bronson Arroyo is now a 5th starter and Chapman hits hitters at 105mph-plus. Yahoo has the Reds as the 4th best in MLB and, whilst that might be too high, World Series odds of 13/1 in some markets are asking to be backed.

NL West: Dodgers, Giants, Diamondbacks, Padres, Rockies

Last year's lesson number two: it may be easy to hate the Giants, but don't underestimate them either. Their rotation looks good-to-great, the real Tim Lincecum may be back and the Diamondbacks, the only other real competitors save for LA, should be the 13-games back that they were last year. That leaves the newly Magic Dodgers and their supposedly loaded pitching staff which may still have to rely on Josh Beckett as the third starter. That could work both for and against them depending if Beckett is dealing or swilling beer in the bullpen. Same factors apply to all the old Boston mob (how hungry - for wins - are they?), plus an increasingly injury-prone Matt Kemp. Stay healthy and the league is theirs, plus a Kershaw led kamikaze at the whole thing.